Post-Hoc Metric Shopping Is Killing Your Experimentation Program
Why choosing metrics after seeing results creates false confidence, and how pre-commitment protects an experimentation program.
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Writing · Lean Experiments
Revenue-First
Revenue-First
Experimentation
Practical A/B testing frameworks, behavioral science, and conversion optimization — for growth leaders responsible for revenue.
The Real-World Constraints of A/B Testing That No Article Talks About
How to make defensible experiment decisions with limited traffic, small teams, operational constraints, and stakeholder pressure.
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Scaling from 5 to 20+ Experiments: What Breaks First
What breaks when experiment volume grows, and how NRG used standards, QA, and capacity planning while scaling annual throughput.
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Vanity Metrics vs. Revenue Metrics: What Your A/B Tests Should Actually Measure
How to distinguish diagnostic engagement metrics from decision metrics and document the path from an experiment to revenue evidence.
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What I Tell New Analysts Who Think 50/50 Splits Need to Be Perfect
Why imperfect A/B traffic splits are normal, when to suspect sample ratio mismatch, and which diagnostic and follow-up checks to run.
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Why Every Company Has a Different Data Dictionary (And Why That Matters for Experimentation)
How to audit the real definitions behind users, sessions, conversions, and revenue before trusting an experiment result.
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10 A/B Testing Best Practices I Learned Running 100+ Experiments a Year
Most A/B testing advice is written by people who've never defended a losing test in a business review.
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The Death Of The Wrapper: Why The Future Of AI Is Vertical, Not Universal
The AI wrapper era is over. Solo builders shipping hyper-specific vertical tools win — not another ChatGPT skin with a logo on it.
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Why Most Automation Systems Fail (And How To Build One That Actually Works)
Automation systems fail because they never activate correctly, not because they're incomplete. Build for activation first, execution second.
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Personality Tests Don't Fix Execution: What Actually Improves Behavior For High-Variance Operators
Personality tests give you a label. Labels don't change behavior. What works: functional bottlenecks, hard constraints, and feedback loops.
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Why Early SaaS Founders Build The Wrong Thing (And How To Fix It Before It Kills Your Product)
Early SaaS founders perfect architecture for products nobody uses. The fix: find the first value moment before you build anything else.
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Why Your Search-Enabled AI Lies To You (And How To Force It To Tell The Truth)
Your AI optimizes for speed, not truth. Here's why it confidently lies about real-time data and the prompting fixes that force verification.
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Zero-Trust Marketing: How To Build Credibility When Everything Looks Like AI Slop
In an era of AI-generated content, proof of work is the only currency of trust. Shipped code and public failures can't be faked.
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The Fractional Co-Founder Model: Why Solo Builders Are Replacing Partners With AI Agents
The 50/50 co-founder split is a legacy risk. Solo founders now use AI agents as fractional hires — keeping 100% equity until product-market fit.
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The Baseline Conversion Trap: Why Your A/B Test Baseline Is Already Wrong
How denominator and time-window mistakes distort experiment baselines, with an illustrative worked example and a framework for sizing under uncertainty.
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The 200-Line Limit: Why Vibe-Coding Solo Apps Needs A Hard Architecture Constraint
Clean code in the AI era is about context window management. No file over 200 lines, ever. Here's why that rule doubles shipping velocity.
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Why Smart Operators Fail To Ship: The Hidden Mechanics Of Non-Execution
Most non-execution is risk management in disguise. The fix: cut scope until shipping becomes the path of least resistance.
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The Hidden Economics Of $300-$500 Expert Calls (And Why Most People Misprice Themselves)
Expert call pricing isn't about your rate — it's about selection frequency in a matching market. Here's the math most people miss.
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Why Some Countries Produce Unicorns And Others Don't: The Hidden Constraints Most Founders Miss
Unicorns aren't created by talent. They're created by systems that allow long-term compounding. Five constraints quietly decide the ceiling.
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Why Most Recession Forecasts Fail (And The Small Set Of Indicators That Actually Matter)
Most recession forecasts fail because they treat deterioration as breakdown. Track income, spending, and credit — ignore everything else.
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Why Your "Unique Visitors" Funnel Is Lying To You (And What To Do Instead)
When breakdown rows exceed total users, you're seeing overlapping populations, not a funnel. Here's why dashboards fail and how to fix it.
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The Productivity System That Makes Smart People Less Productive
Smart people build systems that optimize storage instead of throughput. Here's why organization backfires and constraint-based execution wins.
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How AI Fit an NRG Workflow That Became Roughly 40% Faster
A first-person NRG estimate: analysis moved from roughly eight to five hours after AI-assisted steps, without isolating AI as the cause.
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The Behavioral Economics Playbook for Conversion Optimization
How to turn behavioral principles into testable conversion hypotheses while accounting for context, ethics, and replication limits.
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