The Confidence Tier Model: How to Decide When Your Data Isn't Enough
Most testing programs are built for traffic they don't have. Three confidence tiers — proven, directional, speculative — each with its own bet-sizing rule.
Read Article
→
Writing · Lean Experiments
Revenue-First
Revenue-First
Experimentation
Practical A/B testing frameworks, behavioral science, and conversion optimization — for growth leaders responsible for revenue.
Decide What Counts as a Win Before You Test
Medicine proved that picking your primary metric after seeing the data is a structural bias. The five-minute fix most experimentation programs skip.
Read Article
→
How to Tell If a Growth Hire Understands Risk
A great win story tells you almost nothing about judgment. Two borrowed interview probes — from forecasting research and intelligence tradecraft — do.
Read Article
→
Why AI Coding Agents Keep Duplicating Your API Keys
Isolated AI coding sessions can't see your main .env file, so they quietly mint duplicate API keys instead of asking. The mechanism, diagnostic, and fix.
Read Article
→
Subscription or Pay-Per-Token? I Audited My Own Claude Code Usage to Find Out
I ran my real Claude Code usage through live API pricing to see if my $200/month subscription was actually a good deal. The gap was bigger than I expected.
Read Article
→
7 Examples of Behavioral Economics That Explain Bad Choices
Real examples of behavioral economics, ranked by evidence: which biases replicate at scale and which collapse under scrutiny.
Read Article
→
How to Resolve a Git Merge Conflict Without Guessing What the Other Side Was Trying to Do
A clean merge isn't proof it's correct. Here's how to investigate what changed on each side — and the one conflict type worth refusing to auto-resolve.
Read Article
→
Why Trusting an AI Assistant's Memory Is the Wrong Default (And What to Check Instead)
An AI assistant answers fluently whether a fact is current or stale. Here's the rule for knowing what to verify live instead of trusting memory.
Read Article
→
How to Get Your AI Coding Assistant to Catch Its Own Mistakes Before You Do
The AI that wrote your draft is the worst reviewer of it. Here's the independent-review technique that catches what a second read-through misses.
Read Article
→
Behavioral Economics Examples That Explain Your Bad Decisions
Behavioral economics examples reveal why even Microsoft's experiments succeed only a third of the time. Learn what actually works and why.
Read Article
→
How the Behavioral Economy Quietly Shapes Your Choices
Every product is already a behavioral intervention. Learn why most fail, and how founders can govern behavioral economics before it governs users.
Read Article
→
What the Behavioral Economics Definition Really Means for You
Behavioral economics definition explained: why it's not just bias lists, and how to test if it actually works on your own users.
Read Article
→
How Loss Aversion Quietly Shapes Your Decisions
Loss aversion makes losses feel 2x stronger than gains—and it's secretly shaping how leaders judge experiments, hire talent, and kill good programs.
Read Article
→
The Action-Velocity Signal: Why Raw Token Counts Lie About AI Agent Costs
Token totals and dollar totals are the metrics everyone reaches for first when auditing AI agent spend — and they are frequently the wrong ones. A better diagnostic, and a portfolio-style framework for model selection.
Read Article
→
The Three-Layer Audit: How to Actually Verify an AI Coding Agent Before You Trust It
Most people accept an AI agent’s first answer. A three-layer audit — primary-source check, realistic-input test, goal re-derivation — catches what pattern-matching misses.
Read Article
→
The Habits That Actually Make Claude Code Reliable
Most Claude Code advice focuses on the prompt. The habits that actually determine reliable output are upstream of that — and they're the same ones Anthropic's own documentation recommends and the tool's creator uses daily. Here's where those two sources agree, why it works mechanically, and what to actually do about it.
Read Article
→
The New Claude Code Features Most People Are Still Ignoring
Most Claude Code advice — including Anthropic's own conference talks — describes a tool that no longer exists. Six changes actually change how you should work: rewind, auto mode, background subagents, worktrees, agent teams, and adversarial review.
Read Article
→
Cognitive Bias Examples: A CRO Practitioner's Field Guide
Real cognitive bias examples from 200+ A/B tests: where each one lifts conversion, the lift range, and exactly when it backfires or fails to replicate.
Read Article
→
Foot-in-the-Door Technique: When Micro-Commitments Lift Conversion (and When They Backfire)
How the foot-in-the-door technique lifts signup conversion with micro-commitments, the diagnostic that catches hollow ones, and when it backfires.
Read Article
→
Understand LLMs in Under 15 Minutes
Karpathy's 2023 LLM talk, rebuilt for 2026 — what changed in scaling, tool use, and security, and what founders deploying AI agents need to know.
Read Article
→
How to Run Five-Second Tests on SaaS Landing Pages
A prospect forms their first impressions of your SaaS landing page in about five seconds before deciding whether to keep reading or leave. They will not tell you that your message was unclear. They will simply close the tab, compare you to a competitor, or return to the product they already use.
Read Article
→
How I Test AI Landing Page Copy Without Brand Drift
Modern AI tools can function as a powerful landing page copy generator, writing 20 variants before your next meeting. That does not mean any of them should reach production.
Read Article
→
Mediation Analysis for A/B Tests With a Causal Story
You ran the test. Conversion moved. Now someone asks the question that matters: why?
Read Article
→
How I Reconcile CRM Revenue and Test Data
A test can win and still lose money. I have seen that happen enough times that I do not trust lift charts by themselves anymore.
Read Article
→
Lean Experiments
Get the Weekly
Experimentation Playbook
Practical A/B testing frameworks, behavioral science, and CRO strategies for growth leaders responsible for revenue. Practical. Free. Weekly.
Opens Substack to confirm your subscription · Free · Unsubscribe anytime